Complimentary 90-Day Evaluation

Evaluation Access

Market State Detector (MSD): Every U.S. trading day by 07:30 ET: A Single Regime Classification via API/Email

// COMPLIMENTARY 90-DAY EVALUATION: DAILY PRE-MARKET CLASSIFICATION + 5+ YEAR HISTORICAL CLASSIFICATION ACCESS

Daily Value Proposition

Most Days Are Calm

Most of trading days are classified as Calm State—low-stress conditions where aggressive hedging has historically created premium drag. (2012–2024 backtest)

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Calm Days

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Median VIX

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10-Day SPX

0.3–0.7%

Illustrative Savings*

The Calm Dividend: On days classified Calm, historical data shows stable, low-volatility conditions.

Institutional teams can analyze whether reducing hedge intensity during these regimes improves net returns.

Backtested Calm-state hedge savings (~21%/yr baseline; 35.6% in 2025 OOS) can offset subscription cost. Stress detection adds per-event mitigation value.

Signal Latency Analysis

Lead Time Performance

COVID-19

Feb 24, 2020

10 TRADING DAYS

Lead Time (to Circuit Breaker)

AUG 2024

Aug 2, 2024

1 TRADING DAY

Lead Time (to VIX Spike)

APR 2025

Mar 6, 2025

22 TRADING DAYS

Precursor Interval

Classification Accuracy

Historical backtest (2012–2024) + 2025 Out-of-Sample

Systemic Stress—

Major crashes correctly classified (COVID, 2018, 2011, etc.)

Volatility Spike—

Rapid dislocations (VIX >30) captured before peak

Turning State—

Regime transitions correctly flagged

What You'll Receive Daily

Pre-Market Classification

Every Trading Day • By 07:30 ET

A single regime state via email and API before the open. Your morning "weather report" for risk.

Also Included

5+ Year Historical Classification Package

Download 5+ years of daily classifications and replay them against your risk windows.

API Sandbox Access

Test integration with your systems. Query historical states and access evaluation endpoints.

Trial API Key Access
Auto-expires after 90 days
No credit card required

// DAILY EMAIL PREVIEW

MINDFORGE INTEL

Daily Classification

AUG 02, 2024

07:28 ET

CRITICAL

Systemic Stress

VIX

23.39 (+14.2%)

Stress Factors

3/5 Elevated

// Classification historically associated with emerging stress. Research use only.

Shortened preview • Full email includes methodology links

Live System

MSD is Running Now

The system classifies every U.S. trading day. Here's a delayed state example (current subscribers receive today's classification by 07:30 ET).

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Current state available to subscribers

Historical classification shown. Research use only.

Case Study: COVID-19 Crisis

Detection Sequence

Historical backtest

Feb 24, 2020 | MSD Classification

Systemic Stress State

Classified at 5:30 AM ET (pre-market). VIX at 25.

Traditional indicators showed no alert signal.

Feb 27, 2020 | Traditional Breakout

VIX 39+

Standard volatility indicators first signaled distress at market close.

Mar 9, 2020 | First Circuit Breaker

+10 trading days

First S&P 500 circuit breaker. +10 trading days after MSD classification.

Mar 16, 2020 | Peak Dislocation

VIX 82.69

Market peak volatility.

+57 volatility points from classification date.

Frequently Asked Questions

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results.
Terms: mindforge.tech/terms | Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods