Mindforge Intelligence
Market Risk Classifier
CRISIS
Episode History
Every date the Market Risk Classifier (MRC) has classified CRISIS, its most severe tier, with the market event and the outcome. The false positive is listed with everything else.
Backtest · 1990-2025
12 / 13
Episodes confirmed across 35 years of historical data.
92.3% precision · one false positive (August 2019)
Live · April 2025 onward
1 / 1
Live-production CRISIS classifications confirmed since delivery began.
Record updates as episodes occur
Live production. April 2025 onward.
1 episode · live| Classification date | Market event | Outcome | More |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | Tariff crisis | Confirmed | Escalation brief |
Modern-era backtest. 2012 to 2024.
8 episodes · backtest| Classification date | Market event | Outcome | More |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-08-21 | China slowdown selloff (August 2015) | Confirmed | · |
| 2016-06-24 | Brexit referendum | Confirmed | · |
| 2018-03-22 | Trade-war escalation (China tariffs) | Confirmed | · |
| 2018-10-10 | Q4 2018 equity selloff | Confirmed | · |
| 2019-08-05 | US-China trade-war escalation and yuan devaluation | False positive | The one miss |
| 2020-02-24 | COVID-19 onset | Confirmed | Case study |
| 2021-01-27 | GameStop short squeeze | Confirmed | The unlikely hit |
| 2024-08-02 | Japan carry-trade unwind | Confirmed | Case study |
Cross-era backtest. 1990 to 2011.
5 episodes · backtest| Classification date | Market event | Outcome | More |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-10-27 | Asian Financial Crisis contagion (October 1997 mini-crash) | Confirmed | · |
| 2001-09-17 | 9/11 market reopening | Confirmed | · |
| 2008-09-29 | Global financial crisis (TARP rejection selloff) | Confirmed | · |
| 2010-05-06 | Flash Crash | Confirmed | · |
| 2011-08-04 | US sovereign credit downgrade | Confirmed | · |
What is not in this list
CRISIS is built for acute systemic shocks and fires about 0.37 times per year. Three events a reader might expect here never received a CRISIS classification:
- LTCM and the Russian default (1998). The system classified the 1998 unwind at the SHOCK and ELEVATED tiers; CRISIS did not fire.
- Dot-com bear market (2000-2002). A slow grinding bear with no single acute break severe enough to trigger CRISIS; the system classified at lower severity tiers throughout.
- 2022 bear market. The S&P 500 fell roughly 25% over months without an acute systemic break; the system classified SHIFTING and ELEVATED repeatedly through the year, but CRISIS did not fire.
An episode is confirmed when, within 10 trading days of the classification, VIX reaches 35, or the S&P 500 falls 3% over 5 sessions, 6% over 10, or 10% over 20. Evaluation criteria were fixed before the historical run. Backtested over 35 years (1990-2025). Out-of-sample since January 2025, live production since April 2025. Per-episode statistics are available in the validation packet under NDA.