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Market Risk Classifier · Event Risk Brief Archive

All Event Risk BriefsNEWEST FIRST

Every brief and how it turned out.

2026-06-10✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2026-06-15
WHIPSAW
↳ Same condition re-triggered after the 2026-06-08 report concluded
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 26% in five sessions; the call did not move.
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2026-06-08✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2026-06-09
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 40% in five sessions; the call did not move.
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2026-03-03✓ Stable heldCONCLUDED 2026-03-31
STAND-DOWN
The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.
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2026-02-06✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2026-02-09
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 29% in five sessions; the call did not move.
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2026-01-21✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2026-01-22
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 33% in five sessions; the call did not move.
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2025-11-18✓ Stable heldCONCLUDED 2025-11-28
STAND-DOWN
The system stood down from a ELEVATED episode before the open.
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2025-10-16✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2025-10-20
WHIPSAW
↳ Same condition re-triggered after the 2025-10-13 report concluded
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 54% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
2025-10-13✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2025-10-14
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 30% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
2025-08-04✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2025-08-05
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 37% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
2025-06-18✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2025-06-20
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 27% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
2025-05-27✓ The scare fadedCONCLUDED 2025-05-28
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 29% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
2025-04-01✓ Stable heldCONCLUDED 2025-05-01
STAND-DOWN
The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.
Read report →
2025-03-04✓ Escalated within daysCONCLUDED 2025-03-18
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect this morning. The S&P 500 was down 5.3% over 10 sessions.
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2025-02-25✓ Escalated within daysCONCLUDED 2025-03-03
WHIPSAW
STABLE (WATCH) was in effect. VIX was up 35% in five sessions; the call did not move.
Read report →
What is an Event Risk Brief?

Most trading days are routine, and nothing opens. When the market does something unusual enough to test the system's daily call, a numbered brief opens and stays open until it resolves.

1 · The Classification

The system's call that morning, and the market data behind it.

2 · Historical Analog

Every past time this setup happened, and what followed each time. These are historical rates, not predictions.

3 · Scored Outcome

When it resolves, the brief is graded against rules fixed in advance. Right or wrong, the result stays.

Two kinds of brief
WHIPSAW — the system held

The market moved hard, VIX spiking or the S&P 500 falling, and the system kept its STABLE-tier call. The brief tests whether holding was right.

ESCALATED — the system stepped up

The system stepped off STABLE into a higher risk shape and tracked the episode until it stood down. The brief tests what came next.

Historical reports — history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief Archive | Mindforge | Mindforge